Related Articles
China recentlyrejectedPresident Donald Trump’s offer to discuss nuclear arms reductions.Then, shortly after, Beijing revealed new weapons in its World War II parade, a celebratory affair that Russia’s Vladimir PutinandNorth Korea’s Kim Jong Un also enjoyed.
Theparade included a variety of cutting-edge technologies, butthenuclear delivery systems stood out.TheChinese military showcased a full triad of improved capabilities: silo-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles, an air-launched ballistic missileanda submarine-launched ballistic missile.
Just three years ago, China denied it was rapidly building up its nuclear arsenal. In 2022, Fu Cong,thenthedirector-general oftheChinese Foreign Ministry’s arms control department (now China’s permanent representative totheUnited Nations),told reportersthat China was maintainingonly a minimum deterrent necessary to defend itself.
The People’s Liberation Army’s maritime operations group displays YJ-19 hypersonic anti-ship missiles during a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, in Beijing, China, Sept. 3, 2025. (Tingshu Wang/Reuters)
Minimum deterrence is a strategy basedontheassumption that a nation needsonly to possess enough nuclear weapons to survive a first strikeandcredibly threaten a retaliatory strike sufficiently destructive inthemind of its adversary thattheoriginal act of aggression is deterred. Althoughtheexact numbers that would meet those criteria are difficult to discern,thesize oftheforce is modest.
CHINA SHOWS MISSILES, TRUMP SHOWS MUSCLE: XI’S STRATEGY CAN’T MATCH US
China also continues to insist that it holds a no-first-use policy. This means it would not use a nuclear weapon against a nation first, butonly in response to an attack. Intheory, this policy would complement its alleged minimum deterrent strategy, but its nuclear investments belie both claims.
Four years ago,then Stratcom Commander Adm. Charles Richard publicly warned that it is more useful to watch whattheChinese are doing than whatthey were claiming. China was amid what he called a “strategic breakout.”Themilitary exercises between ChinaandRussia were becoming more frequent, too, making what he described as “breathtaking” expansion even more alarming.
TheChinese were quickly expandingthesize oftheir nuclear forceandinvesting in diverse systems,andthey wereona trajectory that suggested a challenge totheU.S. deterrent force, which isonly designed to deterone major nuclear power, not two simultaneously.
Video
Because of this, Adm. Richardconcludedthat, while it was impossible to know exactly how Xi Jinping might think aboutthepurpose ofthenuclear force, “what matters isthey are buildingthecapability to execute any plausible nuclear employment strategy – thelast brick inthewall of a military capable of coercion.”
TRUMP’S TARIFFS FORCE CHINA TO FEEL THE HEAT
Any successful act of coercion reliesona nation’s adversary believing that it hasthecapabilityandwillingness to attack.AndBeijing is workingona force to convince Washington of that. Notonly is China building a largeanddiverse nuclear arsenal that can reach U.S. ships, basesandallies, it is mixing its nuclearandconventional weaponsondual-capable systems.AndChina’s strategic nuclear breakout is leading up tothetime when U.S. officials have assessed China may try to take Taiwan by force (2027).
A 2024 annual Department of Defense report to Congress described China’s nuclear force as including “low-yield precision strike missiles to ICBMs with multi-megaton yields to provide it options at every rung oftheescalation ladder.”
That same report also said, “DoD estimates thatthePRC will have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, much of which will be deployed at higher readiness levels,andwill continue growing its force to 2035 in line with its goal of ensuring [People’s Liberation Army] modernization is ‘basically complete’ that year, an important milestoneontheroad to Xi’s goal of a ‘world class’ military by 2049.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrive at a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Japan’s World War II surrender in Beijing, China, Sept. 3, 2025. (Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
Thereport also noted that China will probably use its new fast breeder reactorsandreprocessing facilities to produce plutonium for its nuclear weapons. Just like when China said it was keeping a minimum deterrentanda no-first-use policy, it was lying about this. Chinese officials claimed thatthese technologies are for peaceful purposes.
FIDDLING WHILE ROME BURNS: AMERICA IGNORES CHINA’S RISING RED TIDE
After China’s recent parade, I asked retired Adm. Richard what he made of it. He told me, “I think it’s important to look at it in totality.They are advancing rapidly in all aspects necessary for a military designed for aggression.”Thenew information, all publicly available, shows thattheadmiral was right when he soundedthealarm several years ago.
Andwhilethenuclear expert community has found a consensusontheneed to quickly modernizeandadapttheU.S. nuclear force to deter Chinese aggression, decision-makers inthePentagon have not fully grappled with this change. For example,theBiden administration did not make sufficient changes to field a nuclear deterrent force that could deter ChinaandRussia simultaneously.
To preservethepeace,theTrump administration should dothefollowing:
One, fully modernizetheprogram of record by replacing its nuclear delivery systems; modernizing its warheads as well as U.S. nuclear command, control,andcommunications;andrecapitalizingthenuclear enterprise infrastructure.
Video
TRUMP LEARNS A LESSON GROUNDED IN FAITH, HOW BEST TO STAND TOUGH ON TRADE WITH CHINA
Thetotal cost of this is disputed, buttheupper range oftheestimates is roughly 7% ofthenational defense budget, whose entire budget is less than 4% ofthenation’s gross domestic product. To prevent nuclear warandpreservethepeace, this is more than a bargain.
Two, formally terminatetheNew Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with Russia, which expires in February 2026. Russia announced during its invasion of Ukraine that it would no longer abide bythetreaty’s accounting requirements.
IftheUnited States decides to stay withintheconfines of New START—whenthere is no way to determine if Russia is doingthesame,andwhen China is completely unrestrained by a treaty – then Washington would be unilaterally restrained when it desperately needs to adapt its force to deterthegrowing Chinese arsenal.
President Trump understoodthefoolishness of remaining bound bytheIntermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty during his first term when Russia was cheatingonitandformally withdrew from it.Thesame logic applies to New START today.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION
Three, bolstertheater nuclear deterrence inthePacific by speeding upthedelivery oftheSea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM-N), a program President Trump initiated during his first term.Thefirst Trump administration explained that it was adding this “prudent” option to enhance “theflexibilityanddiversity of U.S. nuclear capabilities… by signaling to potential adversaries thattheir limited nuclear escalation offers no exploitable advantage.”
Video
TheBiden administration did not support President Trump’s initiative untiltheend of its term, losing significant time. Now President Trump hastheability to speed up efforts to deliver this critical capability in time to deter Chinese aggression.
Additionally,thenext generationbomber,theB-21, will be instrumental for deterring Chinaandassuring allies.Andas its older cousin,theB-2, showed off againsttheillicitIranian nuclear program in Operation Midnight Hammer, stealthbombers are a threat tothemost deeply buried targets inside enemy territory.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
TheAir Force plans to produce 100 B-21s, but adding a second production lineanddoublingtheproduction output would be wise. This would also bring downthecost per item while delivering a powerful deterrent thatthepresident can use across geographictheaters.
China claims that it has a minimum deterrent, follows a no-first-use policyanduses nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. None of that is true. Forthesake of peace,theUnited States should boostthecredibility of its nuclear deterrence accordingly – andfast.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM REBECCA HEINRICHS
Rebeccah Heinrichs is a fellow at the Hudson Institute where she provides research and commentary on a range of security issues and specializes in missile defense and nuclear deterrence. Follow her on Twitter, @RLHeinrichs.